In a dramatic twist in the 2025 federal election, teal independent candidate Nicolette Boele has pulled off an astonishing comeback in the once-safe Liberal seat of Bradfield, edging ahead by just 40 votes after the final two-candidate-preferred count.
The result, which is not yet officially declared, marks a historic moment for the electorate, long regarded as a blue-ribbon Liberal stronghold. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) confirmed on Monday afternoon that the two-candidate-preferred count between Boele and Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian is now complete — and Boele holds a razor-thin lead.
Count Reaches Crucial Stage: Recount Likely
At 3:24pm on Monday, the AEC updated its official tally showing Boele securing 50.02 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote — just enough to claim a tentative win. With the final postal vote deadline having passed on Friday, no more ballots can be added to the count.
However, given the extremely narrow margin of just 40 votes, a recount is not only expected — it's practically guaranteed. A spokesperson for the AEC confirmed that scrutineers from both sides will be closely monitoring the full distribution of preferences, a process that will run throughout the week. During this time, votes deemed informal or potentially miscounted can be challenged.
The spokesperson also mentioned that there are still a few ballots in limbo due to “partial admissions,” where the Senate ballot was accepted but the House of Representatives ballot was rejected — typically because of incorrect enrolment.
A Huge Swing Since 2022
Boele’s victory — if confirmed — would be nothing short of remarkable. She has achieved a 3.42 per cent swing in the two-candidate-preferred vote compared to her 2022 result, when she first challenged the now-retired Liberal MP Paul Fletcher.
In that contest, Boele came up short, but her persistence and continued community engagement over the last three years have seemingly paid off. This time around, she appears to have secured Bradfield with just over 50 per cent of the vote, making history as the first independent to win the seat.
Boele: “Just Dozens of Votes in It”
In a statement released on Monday evening, Boele struck a cautious but optimistic tone. While stopping short of declaring victory, she acknowledged the closeness of the contest and thanked her supporters.
“It looks like just a few dozen votes out of around 120,000 cast will decide Bradfield,” she said. “We will await the final declaration from the AEC, including any recount that may occur.”
Boele also reflected on the significance of the result for the local community, which has long been considered a safe Liberal territory.
“No matter the final result, our community has sent a powerful message to the major parties: we are not the safe seat we used to be,” she said.
“Our votes mattered this time, and they will matter next time too. That’s the power of independents, and I thank our 1,450 volunteers for the years of hard work it took to get here.”
Teal Independents Hold Ground in Sydney
If Boele’s win is confirmed, it will help maintain the presence of teal independents in the House of Representatives, despite losses elsewhere. The result in Bradfield would help compensate for the likely defeat of Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, where former Liberal MP Tim Wilson currently holds a 206-vote lead with just 332 votes left to be counted.
Although Daniel still has a theoretical chance of regaining the lead, the odds appear slim. But with Allegra Spender re-elected in Wentworth, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, and Zali Steggall in Warringah, the teals retain a stronghold across Sydney’s east, northern beaches, and north shore.
Despite the recent abolition of Kylea Tink’s seat of North Sydney due to electoral redistributions, the broader teal movement remains a significant force in Australian politics — particularly in affluent urban electorates where climate action, integrity in politics, and gender equity remain high on the voter agenda.
Bradfield’s Changing Political Landscape
Bradfield has long been a Liberal bastion, historically held by prominent figures including former opposition leader Brendan Nelson and outgoing MP Paul Fletcher, who served as a senior minister under the Morrison government. The seat, which covers parts of Sydney’s affluent upper north shore, has rarely seen close contests — until now.
Boele’s resurgence reflects a shifting sentiment in electorates like Bradfield, where younger, more progressive voters are increasingly swinging away from the traditional two-party system.
The community-driven, grassroots campaign by Boele and her supporters has clearly resonated with voters who are frustrated by the lack of decisive climate policy and disillusioned with the major parties.
What Happens Next?
Given the tight margin, the AEC is expected to conduct a full recount, which is standard practice in cases where the margin is fewer than 100 votes. This recount could alter the final result, especially if any ballots are disqualified or successfully challenged during the process.
The final declaration may not occur for several more days, and both candidates are likely to continue monitoring the process closely with their legal and electoral teams. In the meantime, neither Boele nor Kapterian has officially conceded or claimed victory.
A Broader Message to Major Parties
Regardless of the outcome in Bradfield, the message to the major parties is clear: once-safe seats can no longer be taken for granted. The electorate is increasingly informed, engaged, and willing to break with tradition when they feel their voices aren’t being heard.
The teal movement, born out of a desire for climate leadership, integrity in government, and genuine community representation, has now proven that it can win — and hold — federal seats in the face of well-funded party machines.
As Boele herself put it, “That’s the power of independents.”
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